Climate-related natural disasters and forced migration: a spatial regression analysis

We investigate the role of spatial effects in the analysis of the relationship between climate-related disasters and forced migration. As a case study we select South and Southeast Asia due to the area's large exposure to these hazards. The spatial regressions show that short- to medium-distance forced migrations are considerably affected by climate-related disasters, independently of the economic expectation associated with the destination. Moreover, we find that this relationship is disaster-type specific. Finally, we detect a competition among migrants, as the decision to move as an adaptation strategy is found to be dependent on the migratory behaviour of neighbouring countries.

Automated summary

The study shows that climate-related disasters have a significant impact on short- to medium-distance forced migrations, regardless of the economic expectations associated with the destination, and this relationship is specific to the type of disaster; there is competition among migrants in making decisions as an adaptation strategy, which depends on the migratory behavior of neighboring countries.