Spatial modeling of migration using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis: A case study of Iran

Spatial modeling of migration and the identification of the effective parameters are imperative for planning and managing demographic, economic, social, and environmental changes on various geographical scales. The recent climate change stressors as well as inequality in terms of education and life quality have triggered internal mass migrations in Iran, causing pressure on housing, the job market, and potential slums around large cities. This study proposes a new approach to modeling migration patterns in Iran based on multi-criteria decision analysis. For this purpose, a total of 23 individual criteria embedded within four criteria groups (economic, socio-cultural, welfare, and environmental) affecting national migration were used. The analytic hierarchy process was employed to determine weights for the input factors and the weighted linear combination (WLC) model was used for the integration of criteria, based on which maps of migration potential were produced. The model applied was evaluated based on the correlation coefficient between migration potential values obtained from the WLC model and the actual net migration rate. Among the input individual criteria, unemployment, higher education centers, number of physicians, and dust storms were found to influence national migration. Furthermore, our findings reveal that the potential for migration across Iranian provinces is heterogeneous, with the spatial potential for emigration being the highest and lowest in the border and central provinces, respectively. The correlation coefficient calculated between outputs from the WLC model and the net migration rate from 2011 to 2016, was .81, indicating the relatively high performance of the proposed model in producing a migration spatial potential map. Our proposed approach, along with the results achieved, can be useful to decision-makers and planners in designing data-driven policies against inequality- and climate-induced stressors.

Automated summary

Spatial modeling of migration and identification of effective parameters are crucial for planning and managing demographic, economic, social, and environmental changes on various geographical scales. The study proposes a new approach for modeling migration patterns in Iran using multi-criteria decision analysis, resulting in migration potential maps. Findings reveal heterogeneous migration potential across Iranian provinces, with the model performing relatively well in producing migration spatial potential maps.