First wave of SARS-COV2 in Europe: Study and typology of the 15 worst affected European countries

Since 11 March 2020 when officially declared a global pandemic, Covid-19 (or SARS-COV2) has turned out to be a multifaceted disease differently affecting countries and individuals. What makes certain countries more vulnerable than others has attracted the interest of scientists from various disciplines. This paper intends to compare the impact of demographic parameters, population health conditions and policy actions on prevalence and fatality levels of Covid-19 during the first 3 months since its declaration of global pandemic. A country-level exploratory analysis has been conducted in order to assess how demography, national health conditions and measures taken interact and condition the disease outcomes. Analysis relies on publicly available data on Covid-19 reported cases, deaths and number of persons tested. Those data are combined with demographic parameters (sex ratio, mean age, population density and life expectancy), health data (cardiovascular death rate, diabetes prevalence, share of smokers among males and females and number of hospital beds) and information about relative national policies aiming the management of the pandemic (lockdown timing and duration). Our analysis confirms the diversity of factors and the complexity of their interaction in explaining the propagation and fatality of the disease across Europe. Our findings question some well-established attitudes concerning the role of demographic variables and public health conditions in the spread of the disease.

Automated summary

This paper examines the impact of demographic parameters, population health conditions, and policy actions on the prevalence and fatality levels of Covid-19 during the first 3 months since it was declared a global pandemic. The study finds a diversity of factors and a complexity of their interaction in explaining the spread and fatality of the disease across Europe.