Macroeconomic determinants of loan defaults: Evidence from the U.S. peer-to-peer lending market

The study documented in this paper utilises a probit regression analysis to empirically investigate the key macroeconomic factors that influence default risk in the peer-to-peer (P2P) lending market. By aggregating the United States (U.S.) state-level data with LendingClub's loan book covering the period from 2008 to 2019, this study examines multiple factors related to default risks of loans issued by P2P lending platforms. Our results show that a higher interest rate and inflation increase the probability of default in the P2P lending market. We also find that the impact of interest rate on the probability of default is significantly higher for loans with lower ratings. By paving the way to future market best practices, the study's outcomes apply to P2P lending platforms and investors in their default estimation of loans.

Automated summary

This study empirically investigates the key macroeconomic factors influencing default risk in the P2P lending market using probit regression analysis. The results show that higher interest rates and inflation increase the probability of default, with a significantly higher impact on loans with lower ratings. This research contributes to informing future market practices for P2P lending platforms and investors in estimating default risk of loans.