Journal
RESEARCH IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE
Volume 57, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101407
Keywords
Internet P2P lending platform; credit risk contagion; SEIR model with time lag; simulation analysis
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Funding
- Key Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research in Colleges and Universities of Jiangsu Province [2019SJZDA063]
- Humanity and Social Science Youth Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China [17YJC630102]
- Social Science Foundation Project of Jiangsu Province of China [20EYB009]
- Social Science Youth Foundation of Nanjing Tech University [44204152]
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The study analyzed the contagion path and behavior of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms by constructing a model, and proposed targeted prevention and control measures.
The credit risk contagion of Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms is an important part of Internet financial risk management and supervision. This study analyzes the contagion path of credit risk in Internet P2P lending. Based on complex network theory and the theory of infectious disease dynamics, the characteristics of Internet P2P lending development are combined to construct a SEIR model of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms with time lag, and the robustness of the model is analyzed and proven. The influence of platform correlations, the susceptible immune rate, the platform elimination rate, contagion latency, the saturation coefficient, and the susceptibility input rate on credit risk contagion behavior among Internet P2P lending platforms is analyzed, using the equilibrium point and threshold value. The impact of each variable is analyzed by simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to prevent and control credit risk contagion among these platforms.
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