Journal
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 47, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102639
Keywords
COVID-19; Pandemic; Social distancing polices; GDP growth
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Social distancing policies have both short-term adverse effects and long-term recovery effects on economic growth, with the recovery effect being three times higher.
Social distancing policies have been criticized for their adverse effect on economies. However, we evidence that while they have a short-run adverse effect, they also have a long-run recovery effect on economic growth. Utilizing quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate data from OECD member states, we find that the medium-term recovery effect of stringent social distancing policies on economic growth is three times higher the short-term adverse effect. We additionally investigate social distancing measures with sub-components of GDP, as well as the conditioning roles of institutional factors.
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