Dynamic analysis of future nickel demand, supply, and associated materials, energy, water, and carbon emissions in China

Nickel demand is increasing globally and in China as a result of increasing demand for its traditional applications and the transition in energy and transportation sectors. Meanwhile, nickel production is associated with sig-nificant energy, water and carbon emissions, which are expected to increase due to increasing demand, decreasing ore grade, and production processes shift. In this paper, we analyse material-energy-water-climate nexus associated with nickel use in China using a dynamic material flow-stock model and several scenarios for nickel demand in traditional applications, energy supply technologies, and electric vehicles, and its supply from primary and secondary sources. The results indicate that nickel demand is expected to increase in all scenarios and stabilize between 2034 and 2040. Secondary supply could cover between 51 and 65% of the demand by 2050 if China is restricting scrap import, while up to 85% without restriction. Average annual energy associated with nickel production constitutes between 2.6 and 6.9% of total electricity consumption in China in 2018. Importing scrap reduce between 27 and 42% of cumulative energy. Average annual CO2 emissions constitute between 0.2 and 0.52% of the power sector emissions in 2018, and average annual water constitutes between 0.09 and 0.31% of total water consumption in industrial sector in 2015, mainly attributed to indirect water consumption.

Automated summary

The demand for nickel is expected to increase and stabilize between 2034 and 2040 in all scenarios analyzed in China. Secondary supply could cover 51-65% of demand by 2050 if scrap import is restricted, and up to 85% without restrictions. The average annual energy consumption associated with nickel production constitutes 2.6-6.9% of total electricity consumption in China in 2018.