Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic

Scenarios constitute narratives or storylines that reasonably describe how the future is likely to unfold. The usefulness of scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is now recognised within policy and research, with many institutions urging the development of likely trajectories in the future state of the marine environment and space. However, little progress exists in the actual development and application of actual scenario building approaches. This paper presents the methodology and results of such an approach developed within the framework of the Geographical and Political Scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning for the Azores and North Atlantic (GPS Azores) project. A scenario-building approach for MSP in the area is developed and future scenarios' storylines are formulated through the active engagement of regional experts. Outcomes from the analysis enable identifying the major risks and opportunities in the management and use of marine space and key maritime sectors, under different scenarios. Three storylines are developed representing distinct trajectories in the use and governance of marine space: (i) Nature at Work; (ii) Business-as-usual; and (iii) Blue Development. Final storylines are the outcome of intense experts' engagement throughout the scenario-building exercise,

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This paper introduces a new scenario-building approach for Maritime Spatial Planning, involving regional experts to formulate future storylines and identify major risks and opportunities.