Spatiotemporal monsoon characteristics and maize yields in West Africa

To assess the vulnerability of rainfed agriculture in West Africa (WA) to climate change, a detailed understanding of the relationship between food crop yields and seasonal rainfall characteristics is required. The highly seasonal rainfall in the region is expected to change characteristics such as seasonal timing, duration, intensity, and intermittency. The food crop yield response to changes in these characteristics needs greater understanding. We follow a data-driven approach based on historical yield and climate data. Such an approach complements model-based approaches. Previous data-driven studies use spatially and temporally averaged precipitation measures, which do not describe the high degree of spatial and temporal variability of the West African Monsoon (WAM), the primary source of water for agriculture in the region. This has led previous studies to find small or insignificant dependence of crop yields on precipitation amount. Here, we develop metrics that characterize important temporal features and variability in growing season precipitation, including total precipitation, onset and duration of the WAM, and number of non-precipitating days. For each temporal precipitation metric, we apply several unique spatial aggregation functions that allow us to assess how different patterns of high-resolution spatial variability are related to country-level maize yields. We develop correlation analyses between spatiotemporal precipitation metrics and detrended country-level maize yields based on findings that non-climatic factors, such as agricultural policy reform and increased investment, have driven the region's long-term increase in maize yields. Results show that that the variability in the number of days without rain during the monsoon season and the lower bounds to the spatial rain pattern and end to the monsoon season are most strongly associated with maize yields. Our findings highlight the importance of considering spatial and temporal variability in precipitation when evaluating impacts on crop yields, providing a possible explanation for weak connections found in previous studies.

Automated summary

Examining the vulnerability of rainfed agriculture in West Africa to climate change, this study emphasizes the importance of considering spatial and temporal variability in precipitation when evaluating impacts on crop yields. Previous data-driven studies did not capture the high degree of spatial and temporal variability of the West African Monsoon, leading to weak connections found in crop-yield-precipitation relationships. Developing metrics that characterize important temporal features and variability in growing season precipitation, this study shows that the number of days without rain during the monsoon season and the spatial rain pattern are most strongly associated with maize yields.