Predicting students at risk of academic failure using ensemble model during pandemic in a distance learning system

Predicting students at risk of academic failure is valuable for higher education institutions to improve student performance. During the pandemic, with the transition to compulsory distance learning in higher education, it has become even more important to identify these students and make instructional interventions to avoid leaving them behind. This goal can be achieved by new data mining techniques and machine learning methods. This study took both the synchronous and asynchronous activity characteristics of students into account to identify students at risk of academic failure during the pandemic. Additionally, this study proposes an optimal ensemble model predicting students at risk using a combination of relevant machine learning algorithms. Performances of over two thousand university students were predicted with an ensemble model in terms of gender, degree, number of downloaded lecture notes and course materials, total time spent in online sessions, number of attendances, and quiz score. Asynchronous learning activities were found more determinant than synchronous ones. The proposed ensemble model made a good prediction with a specificity of 90.34%. Thus, practitioners are suggested to monitor and organize training activities accordingly.

Automated summary

It is important for higher education institutions to predict students at risk of academic failure, especially during the pandemic, in order to improve student performance and prevent them from falling behind. By considering both asynchronous and synchronous learning activities, an optimal ensemble model was proposed to predict students' risk, with a focus on asynchronous activities being more determinant in predicting student performance.