Modelling the potential risk zone of Lantana camara invasion and response to climate change in eastern India

Background: The aim of this study is to elucidate the potential risk zones prone to the invasion of perennial ornamental plant Lantana camara, which is native to South America and has invasive tendency in Jharkhand, eastern India, for present (2020) and the future (2050) climatic conditions under four different Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs). We analysed the current distribution pattern of L. camara in the plateau region of eastern India and identified potentially suitable habitats prone to its further infestation in the future under the climate change scenario. Results: Results showed the presence of L. camara invasion in similar to 13% of the geographical area of Jharkhand, Chotanagpur plateau which may expand up to 20-26% by 2050 depending upon emission scenarios as characterised by the four RCPs. Analysis for the current scenario suggests the dominance of L. camara in sub-zone V (12.77% under high risk zones (HRZ) and 9.5% under critical risk zones (CRZ)) followed by sub-zones IV (6.7%: HRZ; 4.19%: CRZ) and VI (2.49%: HRZ; 2.14%: CRZ). Future projection (2050) indicates a possible expansion of its distribution range across all agro-climatic sub-zones with dominance in sub-zones V and IV. Variable Bio_4 (temperature seasonality) was observed as the most contributing factor for the distribution of L. camara for current and future scenarios across all RCPs. Suitable habitat for L. camara mostly occurred under natural vegetation (66.05% of CRZ and 60.71% of HRZ) and agriculture landscape (29.51% of CRZ and 34.48% of HRZ). Conclusions: The study provides an insight of invasion of L. camara in the plateau region of eastern India, and reveals wide distribution across all the agro-climatic sub-zones of Jharkhand, mostly in open and disturbed areas under natural vegetation and agriculture landscapes. Future projections for the year 2050 suggest a continuous increase in the expansion range of invasion across Jharkhand and call for urgent initiatives to combat its further invasion.

Automated summary

This study aims to elucidate the invasion risk zones of Lantana camara in the plateau region of eastern India, and reveals the potential expansion of its distribution range in the future. Urgent initiatives are called for to combat its further invasion.