Journal
JOURNAL OF PERSONALIZED MEDICINE
Volume 12, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/jpm12010002
Keywords
prostate cancer; prediction; personalized risk; decision aids
Funding
- Korean Foundation for Cancer Research [KFCR-2017-C-1]
- Korean Cancer Society of the Republic of Korea
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A risk prediction model for prostate cancer in Korean men was constructed using representative data, incorporating factors such as age, smoking, obesity, exercise, diabetes, and hypertension. The model demonstrated good discrimination and calibration ability, showing strong correlation between predicted and actual prostate cancer development. It can assist individuals in making decisions regarding prostate cancer screening by utilizing easily accessible and modifiable risk factors.
Prostate cancer is the fourth most common cause of cancer in men in Korea, and there has been a rapid increase in cases. In the present study, we constructed a risk prediction model for prostate cancer using representative data from Korea. Participants who completed health examinations in 2009, based on the Korean National Health Insurance database, were eligible for the present study. The crude and adjusted risks were explored with backward selection using the Cox proportional hazards model to identify possible risk variables. Risk scores were assigned based on the adjusted hazard ratios, and the standardized points for each risk factor were proportional to the beta-coefficient. Model discrimination was assessed using the concordance statistic (c-statistic), and calibration ability was assessed by plotting the mean predicted probability against the mean observed probability of prostate cancer. Among the candidate predictors, age, smoking intensity, body mass index, regular exercise, presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, and hypertension were included. Our risk prediction model showed good discrimination (c-statistic: 0.826, 95% confidence interval: 0.821-0.832). The relationship between model predictions and actual prostate cancer development showed good correlation in the calibration plot. Our prediction model for individualized prostate cancer risk in Korean men showed good performance. Using easily accessible and modifiable risk factors, this model can help individuals make decisions regarding prostate cancer screening.
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