Journal
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
Volume 4, Issue 12, Pages 1052-+Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w
Keywords
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Funding
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan [JPMEERF20202002, JPMEERF20211001]
- Sumitomo Foundation
- Ritsumeikan Global Innovation Research Organization (R-GIRO), Ritsumeikan University
- Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)
- European Union [821471]
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Delaying climate mitigation leads to a need for large-scale carbon dioxide removal in the future, which may have adverse effects. This study analyzes the implications of climate mitigation scenarios that do not rely on CDR technologies for land-use and food systems, highlighting the benefits and trade-offs of early climate action and the increased risk of food insecurity in the near term.
Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity. Delaying climate mitigation requires large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century, with possible adverse effects. Under scenarios with no dependence on CDR technologies, this study examines the short- and long-term implications of climate mitigation for land-use and food systems.
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