4.7 Article

Field test and probabilistic analysis of irregular steel debris casualty risks from a person-borne improvised explosive device

Journal

DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY
Volume 17, Issue 6, Pages 1852-1863

Publisher

ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.dt.2020.10.009

Keywords

Flying fragments; Human safety; Person-borne improvised explosive device experiment; Probabilistic analysis

Funding

  1. Poland National Center for Research and Development [DOB-BIO10/01/02/2019]

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The study aims to predict PBIED fragment trajectories and subsequent safety risks using an explosive field test and probabilistic analysis. Practical conclusions, such as safe evacuation distances for individuals exposed to suspected PBIEDs, can be drawn from the results presented.
Person-borne improvised explosive devices (PBIEDs) are often used in terrorist attacks in Western countries. This study aims to predict the trajectories of PBIED fragments and the subsequent safety risks for people exposed to this hazard. An explosive field test with a typical PBIED composed of a plastic explosive charge and steel nut enhancements was performed to record initial fragment behaviour, including positions, velocity, and trajectory angles. These data were used to predict the full trajectory of PBIED fragments using a probabilistic analysis. In the probabilistic analyses a probability of fatality or serious injury was computed. Based on the results presented, many practical conclusions can be drawn, for instance, regarding safe evacuation distances if a person were exposed to a suspected PBIED. (c) 2020 China Ordnance Society. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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