Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula

Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) projections is important for assessing coastal risks and planning of climate-resilient infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, we estimated the future projections of SLR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models for three climate targets (1.5 & DEG;C (T15), 2.0 & DEG;C (T20), and 3.0 & DEG;C (T30)) described by the Paris Agreement. The global SLR projections are 60, 140, and 320 mm for T15, T20, and T30, respectively, relative to the present-day levels. Similarly, around the Korean Peninsula, SLR projections become more intense with continuous global warming (20 mm (T15), 110 mm (T20), and 270 mm (T30)). Ocean variables show a slow response to climate change. Therefore, we developed the Emergence of Climate Change (EoC) index for determining the time when the variable is not following the present climate trend. The EoC of SLR appears after the EoC of sea-ice melting near the time of T15 warming. Moreover, the EoC of thermal expansion appears around the 2040s, which is similar to the time of the maximum of the T15 warming period and the median of the T20 warming period. Overall, our analysis suggests that the T15 warming may act as a trigger and SLR will accelerate after the T15 warming.

Automated summary

Estimating future sea level rise is crucial for coastal risk assessment and climate-resilient infrastructure planning. This study utilized CMIP6 models to project future sea level rise under different climate targets, finding that SLR projections are more intense with global warming both globally and around the Korean Peninsula. Ocean variables show a slow response to climate change, with the Emergence of Climate Change index indicating that SLR will accelerate after the 1.5°C warming period.