The Cold Avoidance of Typhoons in Their North Turning Over the South China Sea

Based on the typhoon best tracks of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ERA5 reanalysis data of ECMWF at 0.25 degrees horizontal resolution, and NOAA optimal interpolated sea surface temperature (OISST V2) data, the dynamical compositing analysis is used to study the north turning at nearly 90 degrees of 4 westward typhoons over the South China Sea (SCS). The composite analysis results show that: (1) As the typhoon goes westward into the SCS, the upper-level westerly trough moves eastward to the vicinity of 110 degrees E in the mainland of China, and the western North Pacific subtropical high (SH) retreats eastward at the same time, which weakens the steering flow of typhoon and slowes down its movement. (2) The cold air guided by the westerly trough invades southwardly into the western part of SCS from the mainland leading to a descending and divergent airflow in the lower-to-middle atmospheric layers and enhancing the eastward pressure gradient force (PGF) in the west quadrant of the typhoon, which blocks and repesl the typhoon from moving any further westward. (3) Due to the cold air intrusion, the vertical atmospheric stratification in the west quadrant of the typhoon becomes static and stable, which may suppress the convection, impeding a typhoon's westward motion. (4) With the cold air involving to the south of the typhoon, the direction of the PGF on the typhoon switches from eastward to northward, and the SH falling southward enhances the southwesterly airflow on the south of the typhoon at the same time. The remarkable increase of the northward steering airflows of the typhoon results in an abrupt northward turn. (5) In addition, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the ocean heat content (OHC) on the western part of the SCS is also reduced, attributed to the cold air cooling, and the typhoon is likely to avoid the cold ocean and approach a relatively warmer region. This study suggests that cold avoidance during the westward movement of typhoons is worthy of consideration in the operational forecast of typhoon tracks.

Automated summary

By using dynamical compositing analysis, this study found that when typhoons move westward in the South China Sea, they are influenced by factors such as the upper-level westerly trough, subtropical high pressure, and cold air intrusion, leading to a nearly 90-degree northward turn, which affects their movement direction and speed.