Investigating the hydropower plants production and profitability using system dynamics approach

World's electricity industry is looking for ways to improve production, distribution, and electricity transmission in recent years. To achieve comprehensive economic and social development, it is necessary to move toward sustainable energies. Among the types of renewable energy, hydropower has received more attention due to its ability to convert directly into electricity, its possibility of storage and its endlessness. Despite uncertainties in market prices, the amount of water entering dams, the behavior of actors, access to information, and thus increasing risk, planning, and decision-making for hydropower producers to make maximum profit in the electricity market has become more complex. In this situation, adopting a correct decision-making method for the optimal operation of power plants is always one of the main concerns. In this research, a dynamic production profitability model has been developed to model the operation of a hydro reservoir system and the producer profitability process, which has been investigated using STELLA software in an object-oriented simulation environment with a system dynamics approach. The required information has been used as a monthly time series in 2010-2020, and forecasts have been made for 24 months. This study was conducted to study the profitability of hydropower plants using the information of Karun 1 Dam in the catchment area of Karun river. In this study, the uncertainty of water inlet flow status and electricity price for this producer has been predicted by the G ' omes model and entered into the model. Water release methods and acceptable costs are considered separate scenarios. The results showed that the scenario of discharging 15% of the dam has the most profit with 3047 $/MW for 24th month.

Automated summary

As the electricity industry worldwide seeks ways to improve production, distribution, and transmission, hydropower has gained attention for its ability to convert directly into electricity and its potential for storage. However, uncertainties such as market prices and water inflow into dams have made decision-making for hydropower producers more complex. This research develops a dynamic production profitability model to simulate the operation of a hydro reservoir system and the profitability process for producers, using the Karun 1 Dam as a case study. The results show the most profitable scenario to be discharging 15% of the dam in the 24th month.