Vegetation cover restricts habitat suitability predictions of endemic Brazilian Atlantic Forest birds

Ecological niche models (ENMs) are often used to investigate how climatic variables from known occurrence records can estimate potential species range distribution. Although climate-based ENMs provide critical baseline information, the inclusion of non-climatic predictors related to vegetation cover might generate more realistic scenarios. This assumption is particularly relevant for species with life-history traits related to forest habitats and sensitive to habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we developed ENMs for 36 Atlantic Forest endemic birds considering two sets of predictor variables: (i) climatic variables only and (ii) climatic variables combined with the percentage of remaining native vegetation. We hypothesized that the inclusion of native vegetation data would decrease the potential range distribution of forest-dependent species by limiting their occurrence in regions harboring small areas of native vegetation habitats, despite otherwise favorable climatic conditions. We also expected that habitat restriction in the climate-vegetation models would be more pronounced for highly forest-dependent birds. The inclusion of vegetation data in the modeling procedures restricted the final distribution ranges of 22 out of 36 modeled species, while the 14 remaining presented an expansion of their ranges. We observed that species with high and medium forest dependency showed higher restriction in range size predictions between predictor sets than species with low forest dependency, which showed no alteration or range expansion. Overall, our results suggest that ENMs based on climatic and landscape variables may be a useful tool for conservationists to better understand the dynamic of bird species distributions in threatened and highly fragmented regions such as the Atlantic Forest hotspot.(c) 2021 Associacao Brasileira de Cie circumflex accent ncia Ecol ogica e Conservacao. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ).

Automated summary

Ecological niche models (ENMs) can estimate species range distribution based on climatic variables, but the inclusion of non-climatic predictors like vegetation cover can provide more realistic scenarios. This study found that adding vegetation data can restrict the distribution ranges of forest-dependent bird species, particularly in regions with limited native vegetation habitats. Additionally, highly forest-dependent bird species are more affected by habitat restrictions in the climate-vegetation models.