Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044

Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) are the most common malignancies worldwide and are, worryingly, increasing in incidence. However, data in the literature on NMSC specific mortality are scarce, because these tumors are excluded from most mortality registries. The main objective of this study is to analyze NMSC's mortality rates and use them to generate a predictive model for the coming years in Spain. Data on mid-year population and death certificates for the period 1979-2019 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. The Nordpred program (Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway) within statistical program R was used to calculate mortality adjusted rates, as well as the mortality projection with an age-period-cohort model. This is the first study to report a prediction about NMSC mortality in the next years. According to our findings, the number of NMSC deaths in older people will grow in both sexes, especially in those older than >85 years old (y.o.). The age-specific mortality rates of NMSC will tend to stabilize or gradually decrease, with the exception of women between 75-79 y.o., who will present a slight increase at the end of the period. Early prevention and screening of NMSC specifically oriented to this population might change this tendency.

Automated summary

This study is the first to report predictions on NMSC mortality for the upcoming years. The findings indicate that the number of NMSC deaths in older individuals, especially those over 85 years old, will increase in both sexes. Age-specific mortality rates for NMSC are expected to stabilize or gradually decrease, with a slight increase observed in women aged 75-79 towards the end of the period. Early prevention and targeted screening for NMSC in this population could potentially alter this trend.