Journal
SCIENCE ADVANCES
Volume 7, Issue 51, Pages -Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abg8068
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Funding
- Swedish Research Council [2020-03701]
- Swedish ELLIIT program at Linkoping University
- Australian Research Council [DP190103615]
- Swedish Research Council [2020-03701] Funding Source: Swedish Research Council
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This paper introduces a dynamic model to describe the achievement of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. The model includes short and long time scales, is able to reach consensus within a similar time horizon, and identifies key leadership roles played by various parties.
The purpose of this paper is to propose a dynamical model describing the achievement of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. To represent the complex, decade-long, multiparty negotiation process that led to the accord, we use a two time scale dynamical model. The short time scale corresponds to the discussion process occurring at each meeting and is represented as a Friedkin-Johnsen model, a dynamical multiparty model in which the parties show stubbornness, i.e., tend to defend their positions during the discussion. The long time scale behavior is determined by concatenating multiple Friedkin-Johnsen models (one for each meeting). The proposed model, tuned on real data extracted from the Paris Agreement meetings, achieves consensus on a time horizon similar to that of the real negotiations. Remarkably, the model is also able to identify a series of parties that exerted a key leadership role in the Paris Agreement negotiation process.
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