Differences in Radiative Forcing, Not Sensitivity, Explain Differences in Summertime Land Temperature Variance Change Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

How summertime temperature variability will change with warming has important implications for climate adaptation and mitigation. CMIP5 simulations indicate a compound risk of extreme hot temperatures in western Europe from both warming and increasing temperature variance. CMIP6 simulations, however, indicate only a moderate increase in temperature variance that does not covary with warming. To explore this intergenerational discrepancy in CMIP results, we decompose changes in monthly temperature variance into those arising from changes in sensitivity to forcing and changes in forcing variance. Across models, sensitivity increases with local warming in both CMIP5 and CMIP6 at an average rate of 5.7 ([3.7, 7.9]; 95% c.i.) x 10(-3)degrees C per W m(-2) per degrees C warming. We use a simple model of moist surface energetics to explain increased sensitivity as a consequence of greater atmospheric demand (similar to 70%) and drier soil (similar to 40%) that is partially offset by the Planck feedback (similar to-10%). Conversely, forcing variance is stable in CMIP5 but decreases with warming in CMIP6 at an average rate of -21 ([-28, -15]; 95% c.i.) W-2 m(-4) per degrees C warming. We examine scaling relationships with mean cloud fraction and find that mean forcing variance decreases with decreasing cloud fraction at twice the rate in CMIP6 than CMIP5. The stability of CMIP6 temperature variance is, thus, a consequence of offsetting changes in sensitivity and forcing variance. Further work to determine which models and generations of CMIP simulations better represent changes in cloud radiative forcing is important for assessing risks associated with increased temperature variance.

Automated summary

The variability of summertime temperature and its implications for climate adaptation and mitigation are important. CMIP5 simulations suggest a compound risk of extreme hot temperatures due to both warming and increasing temperature variance, while CMIP6 simulations indicate a moderate increase in temperature variance unrelated to warming. Sensitivity to forcing increases with local warming in both CMIP5 and CMIP6, while forcing variance remains stable in CMIP5 but decreases in CMIP6 with warming. The stability of CMIP6 temperature variance is a result of offsetting changes in sensitivity and forcing variance.