Journal
EARTHS FUTURE
Volume 9, Issue 12, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002326
Keywords
tropical cyclones; climate change; storm tracks; U; S; Atlantic coast; 21st century
Funding
- National Science Foundation [EAR-1625150, ICER-1663807]
- Earth Observatory of Singapore - Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund [MOE2019-T3-1-004]
- National Research Foundation Singapore
- Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centers of Excellence initiative
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The study found that under a high-emissions scenario, tropical cyclones are more likely to form closer to the US southeast coast, move more slowly, and terminate in the northeastern Atlantic in the future. Additionally, tropical cyclones are more likely to approach Boston and Norfolk, rather than New York City, in the future.
Tropical cyclone (TC) track characteristics in a changing climate remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the genesis, tracks, and termination of >35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre-industrial era (850-1800 CE) to the modern era (1970-2005 CE) to the future (2080-2100 CE). Under a very high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), TCs are more likely to form closer to the United States (U.S.) southeast coast (>15% increase), terminate in the northeastern Atlantic (>6% increase), and move most slowly along the U.S. Atlantic coast (>15% increase) from the pre-industrial to future. Under our modeled scenarios, TCs are more likely to travel within 100 km of Boston, MA, USA (p = 0.01) and Norfolk, VA, USA (p = 0.05) than within 100 km of NYC in the future. We identify reductions in the time between genesis and the time when TCs come within 100 km of NYC, Boston, or Norfolk, as well as increased duration of TC impacts from individual storms at all three cities in the future.
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