A hybrid simulation approach for planning health and social care services

Discrete-event simulation (DES) has been recognised for many years as a powerful tool to support the commissioning and resourcing of health and social care services, due to its ability to capture real-world variability. However, the complex interactions between two distinct but clearly related processes, disease progression and care provision, can lead to such models being cumbersome and lacking in transparency. Representing disease progression as a series of queues and activities is not always intuitive to a non-modeller. This paper presents a novel hybrid simulation approach in which health status is modelled using statecharts, thus combining DES with agent-based simulation. This hybrid approach allows disease progression to be modelled in a more natural way, keeping the overall model structure relatively simple. The approach is illustrated by a case study that evaluates the impact of telecare services for supporting people with dementia.

Automated summary

Discrete-event simulation (DES) has long been recognized as a powerful tool for commissioning and resourcing health and social care services due to its ability to capture real-world variability. However, the complex interactions between disease progression and care provision processes can make models cumbersome and lacking transparency. This paper presents a novel hybrid simulation approach that combines DES with agent-based simulation, using statecharts to model health status in a more natural way.