Journal
WATER
Volume 13, Issue 21, Pages -Publisher
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/w13213031
Keywords
Kalu river basin; regional climate models; streamflow; sediment loads
Categories
Funding
- EPP Myanmar project
- Netherlands Fellowship Programme (NFP)
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This study presents projections of climate change-driven variations in hydrology and sediment loads in the Kalu River Basin, Sri Lanka. The findings suggest that under the RCP 8.5 scenario, there may be increased annual streamflow and sediment loads, particularly during the southwest monsoon season.
Tropical countries are already experiencing the adverse impacts of climate change. This study presents projections of climate change-driven variations in hydrology and sediment loads in the Kalu River Basin, Sri Lanka. Bias-corrected climate projections (i.e., precipitation and temperature) from three high resolution (25 km) regional climate models (viz., RegCM4-MIROC5, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-MR, and NCC-NORESM1-M) are used here to force a calibrated hydrological model to project streamflow and sediment loads for two future periods (mid-century: 2046-2065, and end of the century: 2081-2099) under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). By the end of the century under RCP 8.5, all simulations (forced with the three RCMs) project increased annual streamflow (67-87%) and sediment loads (128-145%). In general, streamflow and sediment loads are projected to increase more during the southwest monsoon season (May-September) than in other periods. Furthermore, by the end of the century, all simulations under the RCP 8.5 project a shift of streamflow and sediment loads in the southwest monsoon peak from May to June, while preserving the peak in the inter-monsoon 2 (in October). The projected changes in annual sediment loads are greater than the projected changes in annual streamflow (in percentage) for both future periods.
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