COVID-19 pandemic hazard-risk-vulnerability analysis: a framework for an effective Pan-India response

This study evaluated the COVID-19 risk considering positive cases (as a hazard) and the demographic structure (as a socio-economic vulnerability) at districts scale across India using fuzzy analytical hierarchical process and geospatial modelling. Despite the fact that the high and very high COVID-19 hazard was observed in a limited area (14.2%, 233 districts), the proportion of high to very high COVID-19 risk was evident in larger regions (42.5%, 575 districts). A moderate to very high socio-economic vulnerability was recorded in major parts of the country (60.0%, 557 districts), while the districts with megacities had been severely affected due to the more complex urban and social systems. The study highlights the zones under high COVID-19 hazard and its possible linkages with vulnerability and risk at district scales in India that may effectively support emergency preparedness and response mechanisms during the different waves of the pandemic.

Automated summary

The study found that while the COVID-19 high and very high-risk primarily concentrated in limited areas, the proportion of high to very high-risk was evident in larger regions. Most parts of India exhibited moderate to very high socio-economic vulnerability, with districts containing megacities being severely affected due to complex urban and social systems.