Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING
Volume 72, Issue -, Pages 71-94Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2015.12.004
Keywords
Dempster-Shafer theory; Evidence theory; Statistical inference; Forecasting
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We study a new approach to statistical prediction in the Dempster-Shafer framework. Given a parametric model, the random variable to be predicted is expressed as a function of the parameter and a pivotal random variable. A consonant belief function in the parameter space is constructed from the likelihood function, and combined with the pivotal distribution to yield a predictive belief function that quantifies the uncertainty about the future data. The method boils down to Bayesian prediction when a probabilistic prior is available. The asymptotic consistency of the method is established in the iid case, under some assumptions. The predictive belief function can be approximated to any desired accuracy using Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear optimization. As an illustration, the method is applied to multiple linear regression. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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