Beyond livestock carrying capacity in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa

We applied the process-based model, LandscapeDNDC, to estimate feed availability in the Sahelian and Sudanian agro-ecological zones of West Africa as a basis for calculating the regional Livestock Carrying Capacity (LCC). Comparison of the energy supply (S) from feed resources, including natural pasture, browse, and crop residues, with energy demand (D) of the livestock population for the period 1981-2020 allowed us to assess regional surpluses (S > D) or deficits (S< D) in feed availability. We show that in the last 40 years a large-scale shift from surplus to deficit has occurred. While during 1981-1990 only 27% of the area exceeded the LCC, it was 72% for the period 2011-2020. This was caused by a reduction in the total feed supply of similar to 8% and an increase in feed demand of similar to 37% per-decade, driven by climate change and increased livestock population, respectively. Overall, the S/D decreased from similar to 2.6 (surplus) in 1981 to similar to 0.5 (deficit) in 2019, with a north-south gradient of increasing S/D. As climate change continues and feed availability may likely further shrink, pastoralists either need to source external feed or significantly reduce livestock numbers to avoid overgrazing, land degradation, and any further conflicts for resources.

Automated summary

In the Sahelian and Sudanian agro-ecological zones of West Africa, there has been a shift from surplus to deficit in feed availability over the past 40 years. This change was primarily driven by a decrease in total feed supply and an increase in feed demand, influenced by climate change and an expanding livestock population.