Limited impacts of carbon tax rebate programmes on public support for carbon pricing

Revenue recycling through lump-sum dividends may help mitigate public opposition to carbon taxes, yet evidence from real-world policies is lacking. Here we use survey data from Canada and Switzerland, the only countries with climate rebate programmes, to show low public awareness and substantial underestimation of climate rebate amounts in both countries. Information was obtained using a five-wave panel survey that tracked public attitudes before, during and after implementation of Canada's 2019 carbon tax and dividend policy and a large-scale survey of Swiss residents. Experimental provision of individualized information about true rebate amounts had modest impacts on public support in Switzerland but potentially deleterious effects on support in Canada, especially among Conservative voters. In both countries, we find that perceptions of climate rebates are structured less by informed assessments of economic interest than by partisan identities. These results suggest limited effects of existing rebate programmes, to date, in reshaping the politics of carbon taxation. Carbon tax rebate programmes have received increasing interest with the potential to raise public support for carbon pricing. However, results of online surveys based on existing real-world policies demonstrate such programmes have had limited political impacts to date.

Automated summary

Public awareness and estimation of climate rebate amounts are low in Canada and Switzerland, the only countries with climate rebate programmes. Individualized information about true rebate amounts had modest impacts on public support in Switzerland but potentially negative effects in Canada, particularly among Conservative voters. Partisan identities play a significant role in shaping perceptions of climate rebates. These findings suggest limited effects of existing rebate programmes on the politics of carbon taxation.