The question of overshoot

Article Environmental Sciences

Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Laurent Drouet et al.

Summary: Mitigation pathways often overlook the climate and economic impacts associated with temperature overshoot. Limiting overshoot can reduce the probability of critical physical impacts like heat extremes, lowering risks and short-term mitigation costs. After mid-century, overshoot leads to higher mitigation costs and economic losses, underscoring the importance of climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Keywan Riahi et al.

Summary: Current emissions scenarios show overshooting of the temperature goals set in the Paris Agreement, relying on future net negative emissions. Limiting overshoot would require upfront investments but bring long-term economic benefits. However, criticism is directed at these scenarios for featuring strategies with pronounced overshoot, requiring a long-term repair phase through net-negative emissions to bring temperatures back down.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2021)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Historical precedents and feasibility of rapid coal and gas decline required for the 1.5°C target

Vadim Vinichenko et al.

Summary: To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C, rapid decline in fossil fuel use is necessary, but historical precedents for such transitions are limited. While some historical cases of fossil fuel decline exist, achieving the 1.5 degrees C target remains challenging.

ONE EARTH (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences