Journal
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
Volume 12, Issue 2, Pages 179-+Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01266-5
Keywords
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Funding
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2017YFC1404101, 2017YFC1404104, 2019YFC1509100]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [42122039]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [202072001]
- International Laboratory for High Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)
- NSF Convergence Accelerator Program [2137684]
- CSHOR
- Swiss National Science Foundation [179876]
- Helmholtz Initiative and Networking Fund (Young Investigator Group COMPOUNDX) [VH-NG-1537]
- Office of Science of the US Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research Regional and Global Model Analysis programme area
- US Department of Energy [DE-AC05-76RL01830]
- US National Science Foundation [1852977]
- National Science Foundation [2022874]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund [U1906215]
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Ocean Sciences [2022874] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Innovation and Technology Ecosystems
- Dir for Tech, Innovation, & Partnerships [2137684] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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This study using a high-resolution Earth system model reveals that future intensity and annual days of marine heatwaves (MHWs) over large marine ecosystems (LMEs) will remain higher than in the present-day climate. The better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables more realistic simulations of MHWs compared to low-resolution models. These findings suggest that the increasing MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs.
Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover similar to 22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a 'future threshold' that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.
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