Journal
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume 12, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7
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Funding
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) [NIHR200411]
- Medical Research Council through the COVID-19 Rapid Response Rolling Call [MR/V009761/1]
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council through the MathSys CDT [EP/S022244/1]
- Li Ka Shing Foundation
- Wellcome Trust
- Royal Society [INF/R2/180067, 202562/Z/16/Z]
- UK Research and Innovation COVID-19 rolling scheme [EP/V027468/1, MR/V028618/1]
- Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence
- UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium [MR/V038613/1]
- MRC [MR/V009761/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- National Institutes of Health Research (NIHR) [NIHR200411] Funding Source: National Institutes of Health Research (NIHR)
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The viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for acquiring advantageous mutations, and different mathematical models show that the epidemiological trajectories of potential VOCs depend on their transmissibility and immune escape capability. Variants with transmission advantages or immune escape properties can generate waves of infections, while variants with lower transmissibility but partial immune escape may only be revealed after further relaxation of control measures.
Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the effect of potential variants of concern (VOCs). Calibrating to the situation in England in May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories for putative VOCs are wide-ranging and dependent on their transmissibility, immune escape capability, and the introduction timing of a postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. We demonstrate that a VOC with a substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, or with immune escape properties, can generate a wave of infections and hospitalisations comparable to the winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, a variant that is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke a wave of infection that would not be revealed until control measures are further relaxed.
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