Global patterns of potential future plant diversity hidden in soil seed banks

Soil seed banks are reservoirs of plant biodiversity. Here the authors compile a global dataset of soil seed banks in natural plant communities and report a spatially explicit analysis of environmental controls of seed bank density and diversity. Soil seed banks represent a critical but hidden stock for potential future plant diversity on Earth. Here we compiled and analyzed a global dataset consisting of 15,698 records of species diversity and density for soil seed banks in natural plant communities worldwide to quantify their environmental determinants and global patterns. Random forest models showed that absolute latitude was an important predictor for diversity of soil seed banks. Further, climate and soil were the major determinants of seed bank diversity, while net primary productivity and soil characteristics were the main predictors of seed bank density. Moreover, global mapping revealed clear spatial patterns for soil seed banks worldwide; for instance, low densities may render currently species-rich low latitude biomes (such as tropical rain-forests) less resilient to major disturbances. Our assessment provides quantitative evidence of how environmental conditions shape the distribution of soil seed banks, which enables a more accurate prediction of the resilience and vulnerabilities of plant communities and biomes under global changes.

Automated summary

The study compiled a global dataset of soil seed banks and analyzed the environmental determinants and patterns of seed bank diversity and density. The results showed that absolute latitude, climate, and soil were important factors influencing seed bank diversity, while net primary productivity and soil characteristics were main predictors of seed bank density. Global mapping revealed spatial patterns for soil seed banks worldwide, indicating potential vulnerabilities of plant communities and biomes under global changes.