Journal
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume 12, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25914-8
Keywords
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Categories
Funding
- Medical Research Council-UK [MR/R013349/1]
- Natural Environment Research Council UK [NE/R009384/1]
- European Union [101003688, 820655]
- Czech Science Foundation [18-22125S]
- Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission [18411951600]
- National Research Foundation of Korea (BK21 Center for Integrative Response)
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [INV-001754: M.Q, INV-003174]
- NTD Modelling Consortium [OPP1184344, OPP1180644, OPP1183986]
- BMGF [OPP1157270]
- DFID/Wellcome Trust (Epidemic Preparedness Coronavirus research programme) [221303/Z/20/Z: C.A.B.P.]
- ERC [757699]
- Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) project 'RECAP'
- HDR UK [MR/S003975/1]
- MRC [MR/N013638/1, MR/V027956/1]
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) using UK aid from the UK Government
- Royal Society (Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship) [RP \EA\180004]
- UK DHSC/UK Aid/NIHR [PR-OD-1017-20001]
- UK MRC [MR/P014658/1, MC_PC_19065]
- UK Public Health Rapid Support Team by United Kingdom Department of Health and Social Care
- Wellcome Trust [206250/Z/17/Z, 206471/Z/17/Z, 208812/Z/17/Z, 210758/Z/18/Z, UNS110424, 210758/Z/18/Z210758/Z/18/Z]
- LSHTM, DHSC/UKRI COVID-19 Rapid Response Initiative [MR/V028456/1]
- Innovation Fund of the Joint Federal Committee [01VSF18015]
- Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office/Wellcome Trust [221303/Z/20/Z]
- Xunta de Galicia (Spain)
- Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship
- NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center [P30ES019776]
- Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling Methodology [HPRU-2012-10096, NIHR200908, NIHR200929, PR-OD-1017-20002]
- NIEHS [P30ES019776]
- National Research Foundation of Korea (BK21 Center for Integrative Response to Health Disasters, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University)
- ESRC [ES/P010873/1]
- EDCTP2 [RIA2020EF-2983-CSIGN]
- Nakajima Foundation
- Wellcome Trust [221303/Z/20/Z] Funding Source: Wellcome Trust
- MRC [MR/V027956/1, MR/R013349/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- NERC [NE/R009384/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Economic and Social Research Council [ES/P010873/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- Medical Research Council [MR/V027956/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- Wellcome Trust [206471/Z/17/Z, 210758/Z/18/Z] Funding Source: researchfish
- National Research Foundation of Korea [4199990514025] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
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The study analyzes data from the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and suggests that while temperature and humidity have a small impact on transmission, the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions outweigh them significantly.
There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduction number (R-e) in 409 cities in 26 countries, with a decrease of 0.087 (95% CI: 0.025; 0.148) for a 10 degrees C increase. Early interventions have a greater effect on R-e with a decrease of 0.285 (95% CI 0.223; 0.347) for a 5th - 95th percentile increase in the government response index. The variation in the effective reproduction number explained by government interventions is 6 times greater than for mean temperature. We find little evidence of meteorological conditions having influenced the early stages of local epidemics and conclude that population behaviour and government interventions are more important drivers of transmission. Possible effects of weather conditions on COVID-19 transmission are debated. Here, the authors analyse data from early in the pandemic and show that although temperature and humidity had small effects on transmission, they were far out-weighed by the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
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