Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa

Cost, supply and logistics present challenges to COVID-19 vaccine rollout in low and middle income countries. Here, the authors model vaccination programmes in South Africa and demonstrate the importance of the pace of vaccine rollout, with even moderately efficacious vaccines likely to be cost-effective. Low- and middle-income countries are implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in light of varying vaccine efficacies and costs, supply shortages, and resource constraints. Here, we use a microsimulation model to evaluate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccination program in South Africa. We varied vaccination coverage, pace, acceptance, effectiveness, and cost as well as epidemic dynamics. Providing vaccines to at least 40% of the population and prioritizing vaccine rollout prevented >9 million infections and >73,000 deaths and reduced costs due to fewer hospitalizations. Model results were most sensitive to assumptions about epidemic growth and prevalence of prior immunity to SARS-CoV-2, though the vaccination program still provided high value and decreased both deaths and health care costs across a wide range of assumptions. Vaccination program implementation factors, including prompt procurement, distribution, and rollout, are likely more influential than characteristics of the vaccine itself in maximizing public health benefits and economic efficiency.

Automated summary

Cost, supply, and logistics are challenges for COVID-19 vaccine rollout in low and middle-income countries. Modeling a vaccination program in South Africa, the study demonstrates the importance of a rapid vaccine rollout in preventing infections and deaths, even with moderately efficacious vaccines. Implementing prompt vaccination procurement, distribution, and rollout could provide high value and decrease both deaths and healthcare costs across a wide range of assumptions.