The adaptation mechanism based on an integrated vulnerability assessment of potato production to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China

Climate change has made an important impact on agricultural production, and adaptation can offset or reinforce this impact. Due to difficulties in quantifying adaptation measures, previous studies did not take into account the impacts of adaptation, leading to biased climate change impact assessments. Here, we developed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment method that can systematically consider the quantitative impact of both climate change and adaptation measures on agricultural production. Based on this method, a case study with potato production in Inner Mongolia, China, was conducted. The results showed that during 1961-2018, the climate in Inner Mongolia was warming and drying, and has made a negative effect on potato production. Reasonable increase of the fertilizer and irrigation could enhance the adaptability of potato production to climate change. The appropriate adaptation input could compensate for the adverse effects of climate change. In the future, potato production will be increasingly vulnerable to climate change if there is no increase of adaptation inputs. By 2100, some regions will be unsuitable for potato planting such as Baotou, Huhehaote. Here, a conceptual model of agricultural adaptation to climate change was created (Fig. 7). It is found that the level of adaptation input affects the sensitivity of potato yield to climate, adaptation level is the main factor determining the vulnerability to climate change, and insufficient or excessive adaptation would make potato production more vulnerable. These mechanisms are of great significance to promote the implementation of climate change adaptation.

Automated summary

Climate change has a significant impact on agricultural production, and adaptation measures can mitigate or exacerbate this impact. This study developed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment method to quantitatively assess the impacts of climate change and adaptation measures on agricultural production.