Mathematical Modeling of Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission

Article Immunology

Impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccine on Asymptomatic Infection Among Patients Undergoing Preprocedural COVID-19 Molecular Screening

Aaron J. Tande et al.

Summary: This study found a significant association between vaccination with mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines and reduced risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2022)

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Article Medicine, General & Internal

Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials

Devan Mehrotra et al.

Summary: Several COVID-19 vaccine candidates are entering large-scale phase 3 clinical trials with proposed general clinical endpoint measures to facilitate evaluation and comparison. The potential shift towards more asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections alongside vaccine protection against symptomatic COVID-19 is highlighted, along with its implications.

ANNALS OF INTERNAL MEDICINE (2021)

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Review Infectious Diseases

The role of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infection in SARS- CoV-2 transmission-a living systematic review

Xueting Qiu et al.

Summary: This living review critically appraised available data on secondary attack rates from individuals with asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. The study found that asymptomatic index cases generally caused lower secondary infection rates, with the highest rates in contacts living in the same household as the index case and engaging in group activities with the index case.

CLINICAL MICROBIOLOGY AND INFECTION (2021)

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Article Health Care Sciences & Services

Clinical Outcomes Of A COVID-19 Vaccine: Implementation Over Efficacy

A. David Paltiel et al.

Summary: Implementation factors play a crucial role in the success of vaccination programs, outweighing vaccine efficacy determined in clinical trials. Manufacturing or deployment delays, vaccine hesitancy, and increased epidemic severity can significantly diminish the benefits of a vaccine.

HEALTH AFFAIRS (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Duration and key determinants of infectious virus shedding in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19)

Jeroen J. A. van Kampen et al.

Summary: The study found that the median duration of shedding infectious virus in COVID-19 patients is 8 days, dropping below 5% after 15.2 days post onset of symptoms. High viral loads are associated with infectious SARS-CoV-2 isolation, while high serum neutralizing antibody titres are associated with non-infectious SARS-CoV-2.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2021)

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Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021

Summer E. Galloway et al.

MMWR-MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY WEEKLY REPORT (2021)

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Article Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants escape neutralization by vaccine-induced humoral immunity

Wilfredo F. Garcia-Beltran et al.

Summary: New variants of SARS-CoV-2 show high resistance to vaccine neutralization, with some able to escape vaccine responses with just a few mutations, highlighting the importance of developing broadly protective measures against variants.

CELL (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Modeling SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and association with mortality in hospitalized patients from the French COVID cohort

Nadege Neant et al.

Summary: The study found that age ≥ 65 years, male gender, and chronic pulmonary disease were risk factors associated with mortality from COVID-19. Viral dynamics post-infection independently predicted mortality risk, and pharmacological interventions could shorten time to viral clearance, reducing mortality rates.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Nicholas G. Davies et al.

Summary: A new variant of SARS-CoV-2 has emerged in England, with a higher reproduction number and potential for large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, it is projected that COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in England for the first 6 months of 2021 will exceed those in 2020. The variant has spread globally and exhibited similar transmission increases in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

SCIENCE (2021)

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Article Biology

Viral load and contact heterogeneity predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events

Ashish Goyal et al.

Summary: SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain due to pre-symptomatic transmissions, with a small percentage of infected individuals causing large outbreaks. Infected individuals with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza may be highly contagious for less than a day, typically corresponding to peak viral load. Super-spreader events of SARS-CoV-2 occur when infected individuals shed virus at a very high load and have numerous contacts, potentially due to aerosol transmission.

ELIFE (2021)

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Article Medicine, General & Internal

COVID-19 vaccine coverage in health-care workers in England and effectiveness of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against infection (SIREN): a prospective, multicentre, cohort study

Victoria Jane Hall et al.

Summary: The study aimed to determine the factors associated with vaccine coverage for two COVID-19 vaccines in the UK and to document the vaccine effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine among healthcare workers. Results showed that the vaccine can prevent both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections in working-age adults, with a vaccine effectiveness of 70% after the first dose and 85% after the second dose.

LANCET (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7

Nicholas G. Davies et al.

Summary: Studies have shown that the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 lineage is more transmissible and may cause more severe illness compared to pre-existing variants.

NATURE (2021)

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Article Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

Initial report of decreased SARS-CoV-2 viral load after inoculation with the BNT162b2 vaccine

Matan Levine-Tiefenbrun et al.

Summary: COVID-19 vaccines not only provide protection to individual vaccinees, but may also reduce viral load in breakthrough infections, potentially leading to lower infectiousness and further suppressing virus spread.

NATURE MEDICINE (2021)

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Article Medicine, General & Internal

Efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Covid-19 Vaccine against the B.1.351 Variant

S. A. Madhi et al.

Summary: The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine did not provide significant protection against mild-to-moderate Covid-19 caused by the B.1.351 variant, with an efficacy of 10.4%. The incidence of serious adverse events was balanced between the vaccine and placebo groups.

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Dynamic prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers

Jack H. Buckner et al.

Summary: Given the limited supply of COVID-19 vaccines, it is crucial to prioritize vaccination across different age and essential worker groups to achieve public health goals, such as minimizing infections and deaths. Depending on the objectives, the prioritization order may vary, with older essential workers typically targeted first but younger essential workers or seniors prioritized based on the goal of controlling spread or mortality. Various factors such as vaccine effectiveness, supply, transmission rate, and initial infections magnitude can influence the optimal prioritization strategy.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil

Nuno R. Faria et al.

Summary: A new variant of concern, P.1, with 17 mutations including three spike protein mutations associated with increased binding to human ACE2 receptors, emerged in Manaus, Brazil between November 2020 and January 2021. Molecular analysis suggests P.1 may be 1.7- to 2.4-fold more transmissible and that previous infection may provide 54 to 79% protection against P.1 infection compared to other lineages. Enhanced global genomic surveillance of such variants is crucial for pandemic response.

SCIENCE (2021)

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Article Biology

Modeling the impact of racial and ethnic disparities on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics

Kevin C. Ma et al.

Summary: This study fitted structured compartmental models to seroprevalence data from New York State and found that minority populations have higher infection risk and experience unequal epidemic trajectories in the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

ELIFE (2021)

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Article Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

Impact of vaccination on new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United Kingdom

Emma Pritchard et al.

Summary: Results from the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey in the UK demonstrate that the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2 vaccines reduce the incidence of new SARS-CoV-2 infections by up to 65% with a single dose and up to 80% after two doses, with no significant differences in efficacy observed between the two vaccines.

NATURE MEDICINE (2021)

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Editorial Material Medicine, General & Internal

SARS-CoV-2 Human Challenge Studies - Establishing the Model during an Evolving Pandemic

Garth Rapeport et al.

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Estimating infectiousness throughout SARS-CoV-2 infection course

Terry C. Jones et al.

Summary: In a study of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Germany, it was found that younger subjects had lower viral loads but higher cell culture replication probabilities compared to older subjects. Additionally, 8% of subjects had viral loads above 10(9) copies per swab, with a third of them being presymptomatic, asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic individuals with a mean age of 37.6 years. The B.1.1.7 lineage infections had a higher viral load and cell culture replication probability than non-B.1.1.7 subjects.

SCIENCE (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Optimizing vaccine allocation for COVID-19 vaccines shows the potential role of single-dose vaccination

Laura Matrajt et al.

Summary: The optimal allocation strategy for COVID-19 vaccines, whether single-dose or two-dose, depends on the transmission rate and vaccine efficacy. In low transmission scenarios, single-dose vaccination is optimal with high efficacy, while in high transmission scenarios, prioritizing older adults for two doses is the best strategy to prevent more deaths.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation

Ashish Goyal et al.

Summary: Masks are a vital tool for limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the population, with even moderately efficacious masks reducing the probability of successful transmission and limiting infection severity. The use of masks can substantially decrease the effective reproductive number, highlighting their importance relative to other biomedical interventions in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2021)

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Article Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

Viral dynamics of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and applications to diagnostic and public health strategies

Stephen M. Kissler et al.

Summary: The study analyzed the viral RNA trajectories for 68 individuals during the resumption of the NBA season, finding that viral RNA concentrations typically peak 3.3 days after the onset of infection, with differences in the duration of the clearance phase between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. A second test within 2 days after an initial positive PCR test improves certainty about the infection stage, and the sensitivity of tests decreases with longer turnaround times.

PLOS BIOLOGY (2021)

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Article Microbiology

Seroconversion and fever are dose-pependent in a nonhuman primate model of inhalational COVID-19

Paul A. Dabisch et al.

Summary: This study found that the probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection following inhalation is dose-dependent in a nonhuman primate model, with a significant impact on disease presentation. The results emphasize the importance of limiting exposure dose in influencing disease transmission and presentation.

PLOS PATHOGENS (2021)

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Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

New COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations Among Adults, by Vaccination Status — New York, May 3–July 25, 2021

Eli S. Rosenberg et al.

MMWR-MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY WEEKLY REPORT (2021)

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Letter Medicine, Research & Experimental

Rapid vaccinationandpartial lockdown minimize 4th waves from emerging highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants

Daniel B. Reeves et al.

MED (2021)

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Article Mathematical & Computational Biology

Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data

Chloe Bracis et al.

Summary: The study suggests that gradual reopening and increased testing, contact tracing, and case isolation can help reduce daily deaths and cases, allowing for the safe reopening of schools during the COVID-19 pandemic without a surge in local cases and deaths.

INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELLING (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Vaccine optimization for COVID-19: Who to vaccinate first?

Laura Matrajt et al.

Summary: Vaccines are expected to be the best tool for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, with high effectiveness paired with high coverage able to significantly mitigate the pandemic. Vaccine allocation strategies may vary based on vaccine effectiveness, with high-risk age groups prioritized for low effectiveness vaccines, and high-transmission age groups prioritized for high effectiveness vaccines.

SCIENCE ADVANCES (2021)

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Article Microbiology

A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Respiratory Syncytial Virus Human Challenge Study of the Antiviral Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of RV521, an Inhibitor of the RSV-F Protein

John DeVincenzo et al.

ANTIMICROBIAL AGENTS AND CHEMOTHERAPY (2020)

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Article Virology

Estimating the Risk of Human Herpesvirus 6 and Cytomegalovirus Transmission to Ugandan Infants from Viral Shedding in Saliva by Household Contacts

Bryan T. Mayer et al.

VIRUSES-BASEL (2020)

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Article Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

Pathogen transmission from vaccinated hosts can cause dose-dependent reduction in virulence

Richard I. Bailey et al.

PLOS BIOLOGY (2020)

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Article Infectious Diseases

Estimating the generation interval for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on symptom onset data, March 2020

Tapiwa Ganyani et al.

EUROSURVEILLANCE (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing

Luca Ferretti et al.

SCIENCE (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

Stephen M. Kissler et al.

SCIENCE (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019

Roman Woelfel et al.

NATURE (2020)

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Article Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19

Xi He et al.

NATURE MEDICINE (2020)

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Letter Medicine, General & Internal

Rapid Decay of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Persons with Mild Covid-19

F. Javier Ibarrondo et al.

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE (2020)

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Editorial Material Multidisciplinary Sciences

VIEWPOINT: COVID-19 Understanding COVID-19 vaccine efficacy

Marc Lipsitch et al.

SCIENCE (2020)

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Article Medicine, General & Internal

Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: A living systematic review and meta-analysis

Diana Buitrago-Garcia et al.

PLOS MEDICINE (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Potency and timing of antiviral therapy as determinants of duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding and intensity of inflammatory response

Ashish Goyal et al.

SCIENCE ADVANCES (2020)

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News Item Critical Care Medicine

y COVID-19 human challenge studies in the UK

Tony Kirby

LANCET RESPIRATORY MEDICINE (2020)

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Review Medicine, General & Internal

Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Zachary J. Madewell et al.

JAMA NETWORK OPEN (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

SARS-CoV-2 viral load is associated with increased disease severity and mortality

Jesse Fajnzylber et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2020)

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Article Medicine, General & Internal

Viral Load Kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in First Two Patients in Korea

Jin Yong Kim et al.

JOURNAL OF KOREAN MEDICAL SCIENCE (2020)

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Review Immunology

The Future of Flu: A Review of the Human Challenge Model and Systems Biology for Advancement of Influenza Vaccinology

Amy Caryn Sherman et al.

FRONTIERS IN CELLULAR AND INFECTION MICROBIOLOGY (2019)

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Article Mathematical & Computational Biology

Maximum likelihood estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness against transmission from the household and from the community

Kylie E. C. Ainslie et al.

STATISTICS IN MEDICINE (2018)

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Article Infectious Diseases

Using the Influenza Patient-reported Outcome (FLU-PRO) diary to evaluate symptoms of influenza viral infection in a healthy human challenge model

Alison Han et al.

BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2018)

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Article Medicine, General & Internal

Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases

M. Elizabeth Halloran et al.

BMC MEDICINE (2017)

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Review Immunology

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Indirect Protection Afforded by Vaccinating Children Against Seasonal Influenza: Implications for Policy

J. Kevin Yin et al.

CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2017)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Herpes simplex virus-2 transmission probability estimates based on quantity of viral shedding

Joshua T. Schiffer et al.

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE (2014)

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Article Biology

Rapid localized spread and immunologic containment define Herpes simplex virus-2 reactivation in the human genital tract

Joshua T. Schiffer et al.

ELIFE (2013)

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Experimental human challenge infections can accelerate clinical malaria vaccine development

Robert W. Sauerwein et al.

NATURE REVIEWS IMMUNOLOGY (2011)

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Development of a Dose-Response Model for SARS Coronavirus

Toru Watanabe et al.

RISK ANALYSIS (2010)

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Time lines of infection and disease in human influenza: A review of volunteer challenge studies

Fabrice Carrat et al.

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY (2008)

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Contagiousness of varicella in vaccinated cases - A household contact study

JF Seward et al.

JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION (2004)

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Different dynamics of CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses during and after acute lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus infection

RJ De Boer et al.

JOURNAL OF IMMUNOLOGY (2003)

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Mathematical Modeling of Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission

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