A novel method for carbon emission forecasting based on Gompertz's law and fractional grey model: Evidence from American industrial sector

ABSTR A C T With the manufacturing reshoring to the US, increasing attention are focus on its energy consumption and environmental effects and accurate prediction of carbon emissions is vital to controlling growth from the source. Considering the slowing growth in carbon emissions with the Gompertz's law, this paper establishes a Gompertz differential equation. According to the differential information principle and fractional accumulation operator, this differential equation is transformed into a fractional accumulation grey Gompertz model. Furthermore, the chaotic whale optimization algorithm is used to optimize the order of accumulation generation and the grey background value in the proposed model. Then the Gompertz's datasets and six validation cases about carbon emissions are used to show that the proposed model demonstrates better accuracy in all cases and efficiency in the carbon emissions forecasting with several existing models. Three case studies indicate that the proposed model can fit the trend of American industrial carbon emissions better. The model results also reveal the recent policy changes have promoted the uptrend of the industrial and the total carbon emissions in the U.S. The future forecasting suggests that U.S. carbon emission is estimated to be 17.01% (in total emissions) or 17.89% (in industrial emission) percent below 2005 levels by 2025 under current policies, falling short of its commitment submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

This study proposes a carbon emissions forecasting method based on the Gompertz model, achieving good prediction accuracy and efficiency through grey processing and chaotic whale optimization algorithm. Analysis shows an increasing trend in industrial carbon emissions in the United States, and future forecasts indicate that current policies will not meet the commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.