Journal
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
Volume 218, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.108130
Keywords
Climate effect; Railway operation; Derailment; Bayesian network
Funding
- British Department for Transport (DfT) for Transport-Technology Research Innovations Grant Scheme [RCS15/0233]
- BRIDGE Grant by University of Birmingham
- Turkish Ministry of Education
- European Commission [691135]
- H2020-Shift2Rail Project [730849]
- BRIDGE Grant by University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign
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This paper investigates the impact of climates with different features across the US on the derailments, and identifies extreme climate patterns considerably impacting the component failures of rail turnouts. The findings suggest that large-scale region with extreme cold and hot zones should be investigated using the suggested methodology of this paper.
There has been a considerable increase in derailment investigations, in particular at railway turnouts (RTs), as the majority of derailments lead to lengthy disruptions to the appropriate rail operation and catastrophic consequences, being potentially severely hazardous to human safety and health, as well as rail equipment. This paper investigates the impact of climates with different features across the US on the derailments to light up a scientific way for understanding importance of climatic impact. To achieve this, official derailment reports over the last five years are examined in detail. By means of geographic segmentation associated with spatial analysis, different exposure levels of various regions have been identified and implemented into a Bayesian hierarchical model using samples by the M-H algorithm. As a result, the paper reaches interesting scientific findings of climate behaviour on turnout-related component failures resulting in derailments. The findings show extreme climate patterns impact considerably the component failures of rail turnouts. Therefore, it is indicated that turnout-related failure estimates on a large-scale region with extreme cold and hot zones could be investigated when the suggested methodology of this paper is considered.
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