A decision support model for ship navigation in Arctic waters based on dynamic risk assessment

As countries increasingly operate commercially on Arctic routes, safe and efficient navigation in the complex Arctic waters becomes a key issue. For this reason, proposed here is a route planning method for ships based on a risk map formed by the dynamic correlation of multiple factors. Specifically, a dynamic Bayesian network is used to predict the spatial and temporal risks of the gridded Arctic waters, thereby constructing a navigation risk map of those waters. On the decision-making basis of avoiding high-risk waters while achieving the shortest voyage distance, the A* algorithm is used to plan a ship's route. A case study shows that the proposed method can (i) reflect objectively the changes in the temporal and spatial risk distributions of different types of ship navigating in Arctic waters and (ii) provide a direct basis for ship navigation route planning. In the entire Arctic waters, July to October is the period with the lowest risk for the cargo ship the Yong Sheng and the liquefied-natural-gas carrier the Boris Davydov to carry out commercial voyages. The navigable period for the Boris Davydov is longer than that for the Yong Sheng with five months.

Automated summary

This study proposes a route planning method based on a risk map, which can objectively reflect the temporal and spatial risk distributions of different types of ships in the Arctic waters, providing a basis for ship navigation.