Hazard assessment of storm surges and concomitant waves in Shandong Peninsula based on long-term numerical simulations

The Shandong Peninsula is affected by a large number of extratropical storm surges and tropical storm surges. In this study, the Advanced Circulation model-Simulating Waves Nearshore (ADCIRC-SWAN) coupled model was used to simulate the storm surges and waves in the sea near Shandong Peninsula from 1980 to 2019. The extreme surges obtained by subtracting the astronomical tidal elevation from the simulated water level and the concomitant wave heights for the 40-year period were used for hazard assessment. The return periods of the surges and the joint return periods of surges and the concomitant wave heights were obtained using the Gumbel distribution model and the bivariate Gumbel logistic model, respectively. The storm surge intensity grade was determined from the return period level. It was found that Laizhou Bay is the most vulnerable to storm surges. The northern part of the Shandong Peninsula is more vulnerable to the effects of extratropical storm surges, and surges play a major role in this area. In contrast, the southern Shandong Peninsula is more vulnerable to typhoon storm surges, and the waves play a major role in this area.

Automated summary

The study found that Laizhou Bay on the Shandong Peninsula is most vulnerable to storm surges, with the northern part more susceptible to extratropical storm surges where surges play a major role, while the southern part is more vulnerable to typhoon storm surges where waves play a major role.