Summary of comparative analysis and conclusions from OECD/NEA LWR-UAM benchmark Phase I

In recent years, large efforts have been devoted to Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). In 2006, the LWR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) benchmark was launched with an aim to investigate the uncertainty propagation in all modeling stages of the LWRs and guide uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methodology development. This article summarizes the benchmark activities for the standalone neutronics phase (Phase I), which includes three main exercises: Exercise I-1: Cell Physics, Exercise I-2: Lattice Physics, and Exercise I-3: Core Physics. A comparative analysis of the Phase I results is performed in this article for all the considered LWRs types: Three Mile Island - 1 Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), Peach Bottom - 2 Boiling Water Reactor (BWR), Kozloduy - 6 Water - Water Energetic Reactor (VVER) and a Generation-III reactor. It was found, for all major exercises, that the predicted uncertainty of the system eigenvalue is highly dependent on the choice of the covariance libraries used in the UQ process and is less sensitive to the solution method, nuclear data library and UQ method. For all four reactor types, the observed relative standard deviation across all exercises is approximately 0.5% for the UO2 fuel. In the pin cell and lattice calculations with MOX fuel this uncertainty increases to 1%. The main reason is the larger Pu-239 nu-bar uncertainty compared to the U-235 nu-bar. The largest contributors to the eigenvalue uncertainties are the U-235 nu-bar and the U-238 capture in the UO2 fuel and the Pu-239 nu-bar in the MOX fuel. In the assembly lattice exercises, higher uncertainties are predicted for the fast group than the thermal group constants with differences up to one order of magnitude. This is attributed to the larger uncertainties of most cross-sections at high energies. The obtained correlation matrices share some common major trends but also exhibit strong differences in case by case comparisons indicating an impact of the selected neutronics modeling and nuclear data library. In the core exercises, the predicted relative standard deviation of the radial and axial power, for most of the cores, is below 10%. An exception is the radial power profile of the Generation-III core, when a mixture of UOX/MOX assemblies is considered. Finally, it is important to note that the bias in most of the studies is significant and up to the same order of the estimated uncertainty. This indicates a need for better quantification of the bias/variance through more code to code and code to experiments comparisons.

Automated summary

The article summarizes benchmark activities for Light Water Reactor Uncertainty Quantification, finding that predicted system eigenvalue uncertainty is highly dependent on the choice of covariance libraries used. The relative standard deviation observed across all exercises is approximately 0.5% for UO2 fuel, increasing to 1% for MOX fuel.