4.3 Article

A risk-based approach to forecasting component obsolescence

Journal

MICROELECTRONICS RELIABILITY
Volume 127, Issue -, Pages -

Publisher

PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.microrel.2021.114330

Keywords

Conditional Weibull probability distribution; Risk-based obsolescence management; Diminishing manufacturing sources and; materials shortages (DMSMS); Electronic component obsolescence

Funding

  1. United States Office of Naval Research (ONR) [N00024-10-D-6318]

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Prediction of electronic component obsolescence is crucial in managing DMSMS. This work introduces a Weibull-based conditional probability method for predicting obsolescence, showing improved accuracy compared to MTTF-based methods, especially for recent analysis periods. A risk-based approach also allows for better component-to-component comparison and prioritization of DMSMS efforts.
Prediction of electronic component obsolescence is a critical aspect of managing diminishing manufacturing sources and materials shortages (DMSMS). Systems with intended long operating lifetimes combined with shorter market-driven lifetimes of components therein drive the need for obsolescence management. This work defines and describes a Weibull-based conditional probability method, a risk-based approach to predicting microelectronic component obsolescence. The conditional probability method is used to determine the likelihood of a component becoming obsolete within a specified forecast horizon given that the component is still procurable at the time of analysis. The method is compared to a mean time to failure (MTTF)-based approach with a case study using a ten-year retrospective analysis. The case study demonstrates the viability of the conditional probability method and shows overall improved accuracy especially for more recent analysis periods. A risk-based approach also better enables component-to-component comparison which can help prioritize DMSMS efforts.

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