Journal
MEDICINE
Volume 100, Issue 38, Pages -Publisher
LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS
DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000027216
Keywords
COVID-19; d-dimer; deep vein thrombosis; random forest; thromboprophylaxis; venous thromboembolism
Categories
Funding
- New York-Presbyterian Hospital (NYPH)
- Weill Cornell Medical College (WCMC)
- Clinical and Translational Science Center (CTSC) [UL1 TR000457]
- Joint Clinical Trials Office
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Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in COVID-19 patients is associated with high mortality. Prophylactic anti-coagulation reduces the risk of DVT, but full anti-coagulation therapy may lead to hemorrhagic complications. Regular monitoring of d-dimer levels may be useful for predicting DVT in COVID-19 patients.
Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) is associated with high mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but there remains uncertainty about the benefit of anti-coagulation prophylaxis and how to decide when ultrasound screening is indicated. We aimed to determine parameters predicting which COVID-19 patients are at risk of DVT and to assess the benefit of prophylactic anti-coagulation. Adult hospitalized patients with positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) undergoing venous duplex ultrasound for DVT assessment (n = 451) were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical and laboratory data within 72 hours of ultrasound were collected. Using split sampling and a 10-fold cross-validation, a random forest model was developed to find the most important variables for predicting DVT. Different d-dimer cutoffs were examined for classification of DVT. We also compared the rate of DVT between the patients going and not going under thromboprophylaxis. DVT was found in 65 (14%) of 451 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction positive patients. The random forest model, trained and cross-validated on 2/3 of the original sample (n = 301), had area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.85-0.97) for prediction of DVT in the test set (n = 150), with sensitivity = 93% (95%CI: 68%-99%) and specificity = 82% (95%CI: 75%-88%). The following variables had the highest importance: d-dimer, thromboprophylaxis, systolic blood pressure, admission to ultrasound interval, and platelets. Thromboprophylaxis reduced DVT risk 4-fold from 26% to 6% (P < .001), while anti-coagulation therapy led to hemorrhagic complications in 14 (22%) of 65 patients with DVT including 2 fatal intra-cranial hemorrhages. D-dimer was the most important predictor with area under curve = 0.79 (95%CI: 0.73-0.86) by itself, and a 5000 ng/mL threshold at 7 days postCOVID-19 symptom onset had 75% (95%CI: 53%-90%) sensitivity and 81% (95%CI: 72%-88%) specificity. In comparison with d-dimer alone, the random forest model showed 68% versus 32% specificity at 95% sensitivity, and 44% versus 23% sensitivity at 95% specificity. D-dimer >5000 ng/mL predicts DVT with high accuracy suggesting regular monitoring with d-dimer in the early stages of COVID-19 may be useful. A random forest model improved the prediction of DVT. Thromboprophylaxis reduced DVT in COVID-19 patients and should be considered in all patients. Full anti-coagulation therapy has a risk of life-threatening hemorrhage.
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