Uncertainties in global estimates of plastic waste highlight the need for monitoring frameworks

Several studies have estimated global inputs of plastic into the environment, relying on national statistics and modeling approaches. However, these estimates exhibit uncertainty driven by limited primary municipal solid waste management data. We compare mismanaged plastic estimates from three global studies (Jambeck et al. (2015), Lebreton and Andrady (2019), and Borrelle et al. (2020)), finding significant differences. Specifically, 58 countries show at least a 25 percentage point difference in estimated mismanagement rates, 27 countries show at least a 50 percentage point difference, and 9 countries show at least a 75 percentage point difference. Further, several top plastic generators exhibit large discrepancies in mismanagement estimates, including China, Russia, and Indonesia. The limitations of global plastic pollution estimates are well-known in the scientific community, and some variation is expected. However, these discrepancies limit policy design and mitigation. Thus, municipal, national, and international monitoring of plastic management and pollution must be improved.

Automated summary

Global estimates of plastic inputs into the environment are uncertain due to limited waste management data, resulting in significant discrepancies in mismanagement rates across different studies. Some major plastic-producing countries, such as China, Russia, and Indonesia, also show large differences in mismanagement estimates. These discrepancies hinder policy design and mitigation efforts.