Journal
LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING
Volume 215, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104212
Keywords
Scenario planning; Wildfire uncertainty; Wildland urban interface; Forest fuel management; Wildfire transmission to WUI
Categories
Funding
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
- National Fire Decision Support Center
Ask authors/readers for more resources
The study modeled an accelerated forest and fuel management scenario for 76 western US national forests, targeting wildfire exposure to developed areas. The research found that over 20% of simulated fires overlapped with fuel treatments once fully implemented, and approximately 20% of projects were burned prior to implementation.
Recent fire seasons brought a new fire reality to the western US, and motivated federal agencies to explore scenarios for augmenting current fuel management and forest restoration in areas where fires might threaten critical resources and developed areas. To support this effort, we modeled the scheduling of an accelerated forest and fuel management scenario on 76 western US national forests. Specifically, we modeled a 10-year ramp up of current forest and fuel management that targeted the source of wildfire exposure to developed areas and simulated treatment in areas that accounted for 77% of the predicted exposure. We used a sample of 30 future fire seasons to understand how the plan might be impacted by wildfires and treatment. We found that once fully implemented more than 20% of simulated fires on national forests overlapped fuel treatments, and that roughly 20% of the projects were burned prior to their implementation, suggesting that any plan will undergo significant revision during implementation. Treated areas intersected by wildfire accounted for twice the exposure than non-treated areas that also burned. The study demonstrates the use of scenario planning to design a fuel treatment program that targets wildfire exposure to developed areas, and the methods pave the way for expanded use of scenario planning science to analyze and communicate large scale expansion of current forest and fuel man-agement initiatives.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available