Journal
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS
Volume 71, Issue 2, Pages 376-394Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1111/rssc.12537
Keywords
anomaly detection; extreme value statistics; generalized pareto models; influenza epidemics; real-time prediction of extremes
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Funding
- French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) [ANR-20-CE40-0025-01]
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A method for real-time prediction and detection of exceptionally severe influenza epidemics using multivariate Generalized Pareto models in extreme value statistics is developed and tested in France. The quality of predictions is assessed using observed and simulated data.
Each year, seasonal influenza epidemics cause hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide and put high loads on health care systems. A main concern for resource planning is the risk of exceptionally severe epidemics. Taking advantage of recent results on multivariate Generalized Pareto models in extreme value statistics we develop methods for real-time prediction of the risk that an ongoing influenza epidemic will be exceptionally severe and for real-time detection of anomalous epidemics and use them for prediction and detection of anomalies for influenza epidemics in France. Quality of predictions is assessed on observed and simulated data.
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