Fuzzy fractional mathematical model of COVID-19 epidemic

In this paper, we develop a mathematical model with a Caputo fractional derivative under fuzzy sense for the prediction of COVID-19. We present numerical results of the mathematical model for COVID-19 of most three infected countries such as the USA, India and Italy. Using the proposed model, we estimate predicting future outbreaks, the effectiveness of preventive measures and potential control strategies of the infection. We provide a comparative study of the proposed model with Ahmadian's fuzzy fractional mathematical model. The results demonstrate that our proposed fuzzy fractional model gives a nearer forecast to the actual data. The present study can confirm the efficiency and applicability of the fractional derivative under uncertainty conditions to mathematical epidemiology.

Automated summary

In this paper, a mathematical model with a Caputo fractional derivative under fuzzy sense is developed for COVID-19 prediction, and numerical results for the USA, India, and Italy are presented. The model is used to estimate future outbreaks, evaluate the effectiveness of preventive measures, and explore control strategies. A comparative study with Ahmadian's fuzzy fractional mathematical model is provided, showing that the proposed model gives a closer forecast to the actual data. The study confirms the efficiency and applicability of the fractional derivative under uncertainty conditions in mathematical epidemiology.