Optimizing Automated Kriging to Improve Spatial Interpolation of Monthly Rainfall over Complex Terrain

Gridded monthly rainfall estimates can be used for a number of research applications, including hydrologic modeling and weather forecasting. Automated interpolation algorithms, such as the autoKrige function in R, can produce gridded rainfall estimates that validate well but produce unrealistic spatial patterns. In this work, an optimized geostatistical kriging approach is used to interpolate relative rainfall anomalies, which are then combined with long-term means to develop the gridded estimates. The optimization consists of the following: 1) determining the most appropriate offset (constant) to use when log-transforming data; 2) eliminating poor quality data prior to interpolation; 3) detecting erroneous maps using a machine learning algorithm; and 4) selecting the most appropriate parameterization scheme for fitting the model used in the interpolation. Results of this effort include a 30-yr (1990-2019), highresolution (250-m) gridded monthly rainfall time series for the state of Hawai'i. Leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) is performed using an extensive network of 622 observation stations. LOOCV results are in good agreement with observations (R-2 = 0.78; MAE = 55 mm month(-1); -1%); however, predictions can underestimate high rainfall observations (bias = 34 mm month(-1); -1%) due to a well-known smoothing effect that occurs with kriging. This research highlights the fact that validation statistics should not be the sole source of error assessment and that default parameterizations for automated interpolation may need to be modified to produce realistic gridded rainfall surfaces. Data products can be accessed through the Hawai`i Data Climate Portal (HCDP; http://www.hawaii.edu/climate-data-portal).

Automated summary

This study applies an optimized geostatistical kriging approach to obtain high-resolution gridded monthly rainfall time series for Hawaii. The results are validated using cross-validation and show good agreement with observations, although there may be underestimation of high rainfall events due to the smoothing effect of kriging. The study highlights the importance of considering additional sources of error assessment and modifying parameterizations for realistic gridded rainfall surfaces.