Lockdown, essential sectors, and Covid-19: Lessons from Italy

This paper investigates how economic activityimpactedCovid-19infectionsandall-causemor-tality.Tothispurpose,weexploitthedistributionofessentialsectors,whichwereexemptedfromanationallockdownenactedinItalyduringthefirstwaveofthepandemic,acrossprovincesandrichadministrativedatainadifference-in-differencesframework.Wefindthatastandarddevia-tionincreaseinessentialworkersperbuiltsquarekilometreleadsto1.1additionaldailycasesand0.32additionaldailydeathsper100,000inhabitants.Backoftheenvelopecalculationssuggestthataboutonethird(47,000)oftheCovid-19casesandabout13%(13,000)ofdeathsbetweenMarchandMayof2020canbeattributedtothelessstringentlockdownforthesesectors.Theeffectisheterogeneousacrosssectors.Finally,wefindthatthelocalhealthsystemplayedarel-evantroleinreducingfatalitieswithahighernumberofgeneralpractitionersandhospitalbedsper capita being associated with a lower mortality.

Automated summary

This paper investigates how economic activity impacted Covid-19 infections and all-cause mortality. The study finds that an increase in the number of essential workers in a given area leads to additional daily cases and deaths. The study also highlights the heterogeneity of the effect across different sectors. Furthermore, the local health system plays a crucial role in reducing fatalities.