Performance of High Mobility Protein Group 1 and Interleukin-6 as Predictors of Outcomes Resulting from Variceal Bleeding in Patients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

Variceal bleeding is a serious complication in cirrhotic patients and is related to increased expression of inflammatory mediators that accentuate circulatory dysfunction. The study aims to evaluate the performance of high mobility protein group 1 (HMG1) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) as predictors of acute kidney injury (AKI), infection and death in these patients. Fifty patients who were diagnosed with advanced chronic liver disease with variceal bleeding were included. The mean age was 52.8 +/- 10.8 years, and 33 (66%) were male. Twenty-one (42%) patients were classified as Child-Pugh C, 21 (42%) Child-Pugh B and 8 (16%) Child-Pugh A. The mean HMG1 serum level was 2872.36 pg/mL +/- 2491.94, and the median IL-6 serum level was 47.26 pg/mL (0-1102.4). In AKI, the serum level of HMG1 that performed best on the ROC curve was 3317.9 pg/mL. The IL-6 serum level was not associated with AKI. HMG1 and IL-6 cut-off values that better predicted infection were 3317.9 pg/mL and 72.9 pg/mL, and for mortality, the values were 2668 pg/mL and 84.5 pg/mL, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the variables that were associated with AKI and infection outcomes were model for end-stage liver disease and HMG1. Infections were related to the risk of death. Clinical and laboratory variables related to the outcomes were identified. Serum levels of HMG1 were associated with AKI and infection and had good performance in the ROC curve. IL-6 levels were not maintained in logistic regression outcomes but had good performance in infection and death outcomes. Such data will be useful for comparisons and possible future validations.

Automated summary

The study evaluated the performance of HMG1 and IL-6 as predictors of AKI, infection, and death in cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding. HMG1 was found to be associated with AKI and infection, while IL-6 showed good performance in infection and death outcomes. This data will be useful for comparisons and potential future validations.